Forecasting & Predictive Modeling Forecasting & Predictive Modeling Process

IR-6 gathers the latest available data to establish statistically valid, causal or covariable relationships between multiple proxies and business goals.

  • Understand business goals
  • Gather data to establish statistically valid, causal or covariable relationships between multiple proxies and business goals
  • Build best fit models
  • Research the effectiveness of forecasting & predictive models with empirical data
  • Report the results in a manner best suited to your needs

Examples of IR-6 predictive modeling:

  1. Probability of Successful Surveillance
    Easily compare the surveillance worthiness of individuals thereby reducing expenses and wasted time by exposing weak surveillance candidates prior to conducting surveillance
  2. Real-Time Resource Allocation Impact Study
    Quantify the impact that resource allocation has on losses thereby maximizing the efficiency of available resource distribution in varying conditions.
WHAT IS FORECASTING?
Forecasting is the process of constructing declarations about events whose outcomes have not yet been observed. Effective forecasting provides:
Advanced insight
Efficiently allocated resources
Mitigated risk
WHAT IS PREDICTIVE MODELING?
Predictive Modeling is the construction of a model built to best predict the probability of an outcome. IR-6 predictive modeling is designed to answer specific questions in quantifiable terms and has various applications for risk managers. IR-6 has developed and implemented several predictive models for risk management that assist the decision making process by reducing subjectivity and thus, increasing efficiency.